Diesel Vehicle Volumes Are Expected to Plateau in the Early 2020s as Manufacturers Shift to More Efficient Gasoline Models
A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the market for technologies that improve the energy efficiency of light-duty vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) and low-voltage electrified propulsion, providing global market forecasts through 2026.
Automakers and suppliers around the world are faced with the challenge of meeting increasingly aggressive regulatory mandates to improve fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While electric propulsion addresses both issues, consumer acceptance, cost and infrastructure support remain challenges to mass adoption in the near- to mid-term. According to a new report from Navigant Research, as electrified propulsion systems—including hybrid and plug-in electrics—gain market share through 2026, gasoline engines will likely take an increasing share of the remaining conventional ICE sales.
“In many markets and for many applications, ICE vehicles remain the preferred choice in terms of acquisition cost, convenience and capability,” says Sam Abuelsamid, Senior Research Analyst at Navigant Research. “However, concerns about diesel emissions and threats to ban diesel from many urban areas are expected to encourage manufacturers to focus on more efficient gasoline models, causing diesel volumes to plateau in the early 2020s.”
Advancements in electronic controls, real-time sensing and actuation systems are enabling continuing enhancements to the thermodynamic efficiency of the ICE. According to the report, engine right-sizing, improved drivelines (more transmission ratios and reduced friction), mass reduction and aerodynamics are also providing low cost gains.
The report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Strategies, examines the market for technologies to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles with ICEs and low-voltage electrified propulsion, with a focus on engine technologies and materials. The study provides an analysis of how these technologies are likely to be adopted based on cost and effectiveness and how they will affect original equipment manufacturers (OEM), hardware and software suppliers, and policymakers. Global market forecasts of adoption for a range of efficiency-improving technologies for light-duty vehicles, segmented by region, extend through 2026. The report also provides a review of major market drivers and barriers related to automotive fuel efficiency strategies and key industry players within the competitive landscape.
An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.